Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 19.641136 21.283153 23.050552 25.103281 27.433136 30.008796 33.090195
2025-09-28 17.544763 19.901897 22.618523 26.019323 30.218205 35.308894 42.069878
2025-10-05 15.550663 18.232644 21.483255 25.793297 31.486283 38.946822 49.826136
2025-10-12 14.173013 17.061329 20.707749 25.780721 32.885335 42.875333 58.804951
2025-10-19 13.214785 16.267722 20.259514 26.053900 34.613845 47.482220 69.918997
2025-10-26 12.298076 15.411138 19.598013 25.891826 35.619497 51.126709 80.486434
2025-11-02 11.509977 14.641529 18.955551 25.640094 36.394946 54.486922 91.561345
2025-11-09 10.899005 14.055913 18.502199 25.590524 37.443035 58.470684 105.241177
2025-11-16 10.332651 13.483437 18.006877 25.400736 38.198813 62.046270 119.459625
2025-11-23 9.829428 12.962036 17.537221 25.187524 38.860067 65.554620 135.089569
2025-11-30 9.381551 12.489277 17.099493 24.971356 39.468052 69.070700 152.533841
2025-12-07 9.007968 12.101508 16.760281 24.879228 40.282695 73.207381 174.213645
2025-12-14 8.610577 11.661710 16.318951 24.586732 40.707999 76.683711 196.655252
2025-12-21 8.487391 11.632968 16.531328 25.472392 43.653892 87.086426 253.773517
2025-12-28 8.157095 11.262533 16.158480 25.252043 44.245496 91.697587 292.749168
2026-01-04 7.892187 10.979946 15.911072 25.239351 45.288897 97.904626 348.074980
2026-01-11 7.696550 10.796061 15.815585 25.503993 47.003712 106.706009 434.018685
2026-01-18 7.444011 10.506895 15.520054 25.346776 47.703868 112.667535 515.488696
2026-01-25 7.195402 10.212032 15.196315 25.102664 48.157150 118.035531 607.921376
2026-02-01 6.994424 9.985834 14.979182 25.054583 49.096816 125.539202 748.224494
2026-02-08 6.785923 9.737645 14.708322 24.870533 49.660412 131.959201 908.703895
2026-02-15 6.587088 9.497075 14.437778 24.663750 50.136087 138.322025 1110.632198
2026-02-22 6.399727 9.268132 14.176113 24.454078 50.576619 144.829702 1373.567420